Tuesday, January 24, 2006

பப்பட்டின் வெற்றி வழி 6

உண்மை விலையை கண்டறிய பப்பட் ஒரு எளிய கணித சூத்திரம் வைத்திருக்கிறார்.நாம் முன்பு பார்த்தபடி நாம் நம் பங்கு முதலீட்டுக்கு 15% முதல் 20% வரை ரிடர்ன் எதிர்பார்க்கலாம் என எழுதியிருந்தேன்.உதாரணத்துக்கு 15% என்று வைத்துகொள்வோம்.நமக்கு இதோடு EPS என்ற இன்னொரு விவரமும் தேவைப்படும்.ஒவ்வொரு கம்பனியும் தமது வருடாந்திர EPS (earning per share) எவ்வளவு என்பதை வெளியிடும். உண்மை விலையை கண்டறிவதற்கான சூத்திரம் intrinsic price = eps /expected return In our example expected return = 15% i.e 0.15 இப்போது சில கம்பனிகளை எடுத்துக்கொண்டு அவற்றின் பங்குகளின் உண்மையான விலையை பார்க்கலாம். ரிலயன்ஸ் eps = 54.34 expected return = 0.15 intrinsic price = eps/expected return = 54.34/0.15 = 362 உண்மை விலை = 362 இன்றைய சந்தை விலை = 653 பரிந்துரை = over priced.wait 362 மேல் ரிலயன்ஸ் கம்பனியின் பங்குகளை பப்பட்டின் முறையில் வாங்கக்கூடாது. இதே முறையில் மற்ற கம்பனிகளின் உண்மை விலையை கணக்கிட்டு சந்தை விலை உண்மை விலையை விட குறைவாக இருந்தால் வாங்க வேண்டும். (நீங்கள் இப்போது இந்த சூத்திரத்தை பயன்படுத்தி பார்த்தால் இந்திய பங்கு சந்தையில் பல பங்குகள் over priced என்பது தெரியவரும்.ஏனேனில் வரலாற்றில் இல்லாத அளவுக்கு இந்திய பங்கு சந்தை முன்னேற்றம் கண்டுள்ளது.இது விற்பதற்கு அருமையான சமயம்.வாங்குவதற்கு அல்ல) இந்த சூத்திரத்தின் அடிப்படையை எழுதினால் அது ரெண்டு மூணு பதிவு வரை போகும்.அதனால் அதை எழுதவில்லை. பங்கை பப்பட்டின் சூத்திரத்தை பயன்படுத்தி வாங்கிவிட்டோம்.அடுத்து செய்ய வேண்டியது என்ன? (நாளை)

12 comments:

Ashlyn said...

Have a question here Selvan. Not to argue, but a lame doubt. How do you know Waren Buffet's way is the best? There are many others who have become millioners buying Microsoft stocks or IPO? Warret Buffet's might be one way to buy stocks, but how did you decide it is THE way?

செல்வன் said...

Hi ashlyn,

I never claimed buffet's way is THE way.It is A way to make money.If you ask what are the advantages of buffet's method

1.It works
2.Its very conservative.So the risk of losing money is very low.
3.The other methods of making money in stock market,dont seem to be safe enough to me.

Ashlyn said...

Makes sense. Another novice question: If I have 2 lakhs surplus to invest for 10 years, how much do you think I can make in that 10 years?

செல்வன் said...

Ideally if I invest such an amount in stocks I would expect atleast 15% compund return per annum,which means 4.65 lakhs on maturity.

This is expectation.What we will get-god only can tell for sure.

Ashlyn said...

Alright, let me get myself straight here.. this book (Is that Warren Buffet's way?) of his says how to make a reasonable amount of money, but not to make millions. Is that right? The way you started this section sounded like you have become a millionaire following his ideas. But now from what you are saying it sounds like with 10 lakhs to invest, we might ideally expect about 22 lakhs in 10 years..no where near becoming rich!!!!

செல்வன் said...

Did I ever mention that I became a millionaire by shares?No.I clearly stated that I had a small amount of money to invest.And I clerly wrote buffets method isnt appropriate for people who want exorbitant returns in the very beginning of this series.

BUffet is a conservative.But his methods catapulted him to become the second richest man in the world.People who wanted 50% returns from stock market became papupers.But buffet who wanted 10 to 12% return from stocks actually achieved 24% returns compunded for 25 years in a row-which made him what he is.

The estimates I give are conservative estimates.They are minimum returns which we should expect.Please also dont forget that there is every chance of the investor losing every penny he has in the stock market.

And forgive me for making a small mistake.I gave a wrong figure in my previous mail.

In buffets method if we invest 200,000 now after 10 years at 15% compund interest per year we should expect around 804,000.

தமிழ் சசி said...

செல்வன்,

உங்கள் மின்னஞல் கொடுக்க முடியுமா ?

செல்வன் said...

Dear sasi

My email id is holyox@gmail.com

selvan

ஸில்வியா said...

selvan,

I am strongly advised by financial planners to buy and hold both TCS and INFY shares. I came across your article and applied buffet's formula to TCS shares.

TCS eps: rs. 60 (approx)
expected return: 15%

value: 60/.15 = 400

So it rs.400. But, TCS market price is rs.1650 now. even its ipo price was rs.850. hw do u explain this. do the financial planners see it differently? thanks for your help

செல்வன் said...

sylvia,

Its always a mistake to mix 2 methods.Buffets method will work only in whole and not as a part.I guess your advisors gave the suggestion based on technical analysis.Technical analysis is a method which uses past history of shares.

In technical analysis EPS is irrelevant.Only past history and predicted prices of shares are important.So its not advisable to confuse buffets method with this method.

First of all buffet will not buy TCS and infosys.Next he hates technical analysis and research on share prices.Third IMHO indian stock market is highly overpriced.

Infosys and TCS are indeed overpriced in buffets method.But when we dont follow that method and base our calculation on technical analysis,there is no point in worrying about intrinsic price.

ஸில்வியா said...

thanks selvan!

So technical analysis is against EPS based analysis? Under whch conditions, shud we apply one of these...?

செல்வன் said...

thanks selvan!

So technical analysis is against EPS based analysis? Under whch conditions, shud we apply one of these...?

-------
For short term results technical analysis is suited.But buffet wouldnt recommend short term investing strategies.

Actually Buffet hates technical analysis.

This is what buffet remarked on technical analysis."If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."

Buffet wrote the following joke about technical analysis

A Technical Analyst and his friend were walking across the street. His friend noticed a $10 bill laying in the middle of the road and exclaimed, "Look, there is a $10 bill in the road". At which point the Technical Analyst said "If it were really a $10 bill, it wouldn't be laying in the road".

This joke underscores the idea that Technical Analysis may not always evaluate the market without error

You can get more info on technical analysis from the following website

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis